Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 040753
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1253 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 00Z MDLS REMAIN IN RSNBLY GOOD
AGRMT THAT A CLOSED UPR LOW WL APRCH FM THE W TODAY...THEN PASS
JUST N OF THE PZ5 WTRS LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUE WHL GRADLY WKNG.
AT THE SFC...TO SLIGHTLY VARYING DEGREES THE 00Z MDLS ALL FCST A
NRLY VERTICALLY STACKED ASCD SFC LOW TO FLW A SMLR TRACK WHL
PULLING A WKNG COLD FRONT AND/OR SFC TROF INTO THE PZ5 WTRS TODAY
INTO TONITE. PER A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MDLS...EXPECT MAX ASCD
WINDS ACRS THE PZ5 WTRS WITH THIS FROPA TO HOLD IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE. THEN FURTHER S...AS THE UPR LOW IS FCST TO MOV INLD INTO
THE PAC NW AND AN UPR RIDGE BLDS INVOF 140W AN ASCD SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE IS FCST TO BUILD INVOF 135W TUE/TUE NITE WHICH WL COMBINE
WITH AN INLD CA SFC TROF TO CAUSE THE NLY GRADIENT OFSHR
CALIFORNIA TO STRENGTHEN. IN RGRDS TO THE FCST STRENGTH OF THIS
GRADIENT BLV THE 00Z GFS LOOKS LK A RSNBL COMPROMISE BTWN THE
STRONGER 00Z NAM/GEM (WHICH INTRODUCE GALE FORCE BL WINDS IN THE N
CNTRL CA CSTL WTR DOMAINS LATE TONITE) AND WEAKER 00Z
NAVGEM/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE PLAN ON POPULATING OUR
SHORT TERM FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE 00Z GFS 30M BL WINDS FOR TODAY
THRU TUE NITE WHICH WL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR TIMING CHNGS TO THE
PREVLY FCSTD GALE WRNGS FOR THE PZ6 WTRS (ZONES PZZ825 AND PZZ830)
WITH NO SIG CHNGS TO THE PZ5 WTRS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 00Z MDLS GNRLY AGREE THAT THE CLOSED
UPR LOW WL SLIDE S ACRS THE WRN CONUS WED INTO THU WHICH WL
MAINTAIN THE STRONG NLY GRADIENT WITH LTL CHNG IN AREAL COVERAGE
OR FCST STRENGTH. THEN BY LATE THU INTO FRI NITE AS THE UPR LOW IS
FCST TO MOVE E AND FURTHER INLAND...AND AS AN UPSTREAM SFC LOW IS
FCST TO MOV SE TWDS THE WRN GULF OF AK CAUSING THE RIDGE TO BREAK
DOWN...ALL OF THE 00Z GLOBAL MDLS FCST THE NLY GRADIENT TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THEREFORE SINCE IT STILL LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE...
WL CONT TO POPULATE WITH THE 00Z GFS 30M BL WINDS FOR WED THRU FRI
NITE. SO AS A RESULT DO NOT EXPECT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR LONG RANGE
CHNGS TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS.

.SEAS...WITH THE OVERALL DIFFERENCES BTWN THE TWO MDLS RMNG BTWN
1-3 FT THRUT THE WHOLE FCST PERIOD...AS WAS DONE PREVLY...WL USE
A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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