Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 190916
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/19/15 0916Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 0845ZDS
HYDROESTIMATOR: 0845Z
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LOCATION...W FLORIDA...SW ALABAMA...SE MISSISSIPPI...SE LOUISIANA...
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ATTN WFOS...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...DVLPG THREAT FOR HVY RAINFALL
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO PIECES OF
S/WV ENERGY LIFTING NEWD  ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY. RECENT IR SATL AND NLDN LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
NEW CONVECTIVE DVLPMT TAKING PLACE S OF LA..JUST OUTSIDE OF RADAR
COVERAGE..AS THE SECOND OF THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY AMPLIFIES THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MX. GOES SATL WINDS ALSO INDICATE AN
80KT SPEED MAX ROTATING ROTATING NE ACROSS THE WRN GOM HELPING TO ENHANCE
DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDING SW-NE JUST
OFFSHORE SE LA CREATING A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LVL CNVG ENVIRONMENT FOR CELL
DVLPMT TO TAKE PLACE ALONG. SWRLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF MEETS
MORE SRLY LOW LVL FLOW APPEARING MAXIMIZED JUST OFF SE LA AND STRETCHING
NE TWDS FAR SW AL AND THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE. A RICH PW PLUME STRETCHES
FROM SERN MX NWD ALONG THE WRN GULF AND THEN TWDS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
WITH 2" PW VALUES AT ITS CORE ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH. CIRA EXPERIMENTAL
LAYERED PW PRODUCT SHOWS VERY HIGH PW`S THROUGH ALL LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH NRLY SATURATED PROFILE FROM 00Z LIX RAOB.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0930-1230Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...WITH OFFSHORE CNVCTN BEGINNING TO DVLP AND S/WV
ENERGY/SPEED MAX ROTATING NE..BELIEVE THAT CNVCTN WILL EXPAND NEWD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS FAR SE LA AND CLOSE TO OR OVER PARTS OF FAR SE
MS/SW AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE. SOME SHWRS/TSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DVLP ACROSS SW AL..PARTLY AIDED BY LIFT FROM INITIAL S/WV ENERGY THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG LOW LVL CNVGC OVER
THE NERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA COUPLED WITH BROAD WAA REGIME AND
INCRSG INSTABILITY AS GULF AIR IS DRAWN NEWD SHOULD HELP TO GRADUALLY
INCRS THE NEWD EXTENT OF STRONG CNVCTN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT THE LACKING INSTABILITY INGREDIENT WILL HELP TO KEEP
STRONGER CELLS JUST S OF MS/AL/W FL UNTIL AFTER 12Z WITH CNVCTN INSTEAD
RIDING EWD JUST OFF THE COAST AS EARLIER OVERNIGHT CNVCTN HAS DONE. IF
STRONG CNVCTN DOES PRESS INLAND ACROSS S MS/SW AL/W FL...EXPECT HVY RAINS
GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. AUTOMATED SATL ESTIMATES HAVE INDICATED
UP TO 1.5"/HR RAINRATES THUS FAR FROM THE DVLPG OFFSHORE STORMS WHICH
SHOULD INCRS AS CELLS ORGANIZE.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3216 8558 2730 8941 2852 9141 3182 8823
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