Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 191441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191440
GAZ000-191645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN THRU CNTRL GEORGIA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 78...

VALID 191440Z - 191645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 78 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS AN
INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 17-19Z.

DISCUSSION...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF WEAK MID/UPPER
IMPULSES MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...IN ADVANCE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
MODERATELY LARGE BENEATH A BELT OF 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.  THIS
APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...MAINLY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND
HUMIDITY IS HIGHEST...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA /WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 70F/.

IT IS A BIT UNCLEAR IF THE ONGOING INTENSE CONVECTION WITH A
SUSTAINED MESOCYCLONE...NOW EAST OF ABBEVILLE AL...IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY
MAY BE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG A ZONE OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ITS MAINTENANCE...AND
PERHAPS FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH...INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY
IMPACTS...WHICH MAY INCLUDE A CONTINUING RISK FOR AT LEAST
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES...AND A MORE GENERAL INCREASE IN POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF
ALBANY GA BY AROUND 16Z...BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH OF MACON TOWARD
EASTMAN THROUGH 17-19Z.

..KERR.. 04/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   32068494 32428410 32498314 32218273 31668327 31488427
            31448477 31728497 32068494



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