Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 260459
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1159 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
259 PM CDT

THROUGH MONDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND THEN WITH QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO KICK THIS OFF TO THE EAST...WITH IT THEN LIKELY BEING
ABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
CLEARING SKIES THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT WITH FROST NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME...AS THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REMAINING TO THE EAST AND WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAKER FLOW/RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS...SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SLOWLY BUILDING. ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL STILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. ENERGY LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST WITH A STRONGER
PIECE OF ENERGY LIKELY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS TO ONLY PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER AT
LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LONG TERM...
259 PM CDT

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYSTEM TO THE EAST APPEARS TO BEGIN TO TAKE ON A MORE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE WEAK RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY TRYING TO INCH CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING APPEAR TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT ON THIS AFTERNOON.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
POTENTILLY NEAR 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW
10 KTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITONS...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

KJB


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...SLGT CHC -SHRA...PRIMARILY VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.

THURSDAY...VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

RATZER

&&

.MARINE...
137 PM CDT

MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT
BETWEEN HIGH OVER CANADA AND LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH WINDS DOMINATING BY LAKE/LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.

&&

$$

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