Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 021007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
607 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING A WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...WARM ADVECTION PCPN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NY WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE WRN PTN
OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PCPN TYPE LOOKS TO BE
FREEZING RAIN BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS.
WILL BE ISSUING A SPS FOR THIS AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...FOR TODAY EXPECT A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
DISSIPATE AS VIRGA DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS ERN PTN OF FA.
VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING
AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MAINLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH EXCEPT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA LATE AT NIGHT
AND AS A RESULT EXPECT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEAST
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING INTO SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL
BE CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND THIS AREA WILL BE SPLIT OUT IN THE HWO. MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FA CAN EXPECT A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION EXCEPT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WHICH WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH SUCH
THAT ANY SNOW WILL NOT ACCUMULATE. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FA WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE POLAR JET AND SOUTHERN JET OVER OUR REGION
WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED AND LIKELY WET WEATHER DURING MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
FOR A MAINLY DRY BUT CHILLY DAY. A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY...MORE LIKELY AT NIGHT.
THIS FEATURE COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...OR SNOW CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX....TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IF FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE MODERATE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS.

THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL INDICATED A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THE ECWMF HAS DRAPED IT NEAR I-84...WHILE THE OTHER TWO
MODELS HAVE IT STALLING CLOSER TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL END UP...BUT THE SIGNAL IS THERE FOR
THIS TO BE A PLAYER FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MEANWHILE...A PLETHORA OF DISTURBANCES LOOK TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
PACIFIC JET AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER PACIFIC AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS...AIDED BY A DEVELOPING CUTOFF FORECAST TO DIVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND COULD
BRING PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN TO OUR REGION MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY COLDER ECWMF AND WARMER
GFS/CANADIAN WOULD BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM I-
90 NORTH ON MONDAY...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 HAVE A CHANCE TO
BRIEFLY PUNCH INTO THE WARM AIR SECTOR WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...AS A LARGE ARCTIC  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY COULD SLIP A LITTLE SOUTH AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG IT. RIGHT NOW THE THERMAL PROFILES WOULD DICTATE MORE RAIN
THAN SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS SETUP LOOKS HAUNTINGLY SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAPPENED IN EARLY APRIL 2003 WHEN OUR REGION WAS IMPACTED BY A
HISTORICALLY LATE SEASON ICE STORM. MACHINE GUIDANCE FAVORS
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND THAT IS HOW WE WILL FORECAST IT FOR
NOW...MAINLY RAIN. AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY FREEZING LOOKS
VERY LOW...TOO LOW TO MENTION IN OUR HWO...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IF LOW LEVEL SHALLOW AIR IS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHAT IT
INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ON BY TO OUR EAST ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT AND PULLING FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO NOSE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY...BUT WE STILL KEPT SLIGHT
POPS IN AS IT MIGHT REMAIN SOMEWHAT OVERCAST WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO ATTEMPT TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK AS A WARM FRONT
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK ACTUALLY BE AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT AGAIN...IF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
DAMNING IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY THINKING...THEY
COULD END UP A BIT COLDER THAN NORMAL. PRECIPITATION LOOKS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z...THAN CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS MIGHT PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR.

SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK...PERHAPS A SPRINKLE
OR TWO AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL
SOUTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 12Z...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS (HIGHEST AT KALB AND KPSF).
HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT DIMINISH A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT...LOWER CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE
THEY WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z WITH BASES AROUND 4000 FEET
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY OCCASIONALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
THE SHOWER THREAT INCREASING (VCSH). FOR NOW...WE KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THIS FAR OUT IN THE ACTUAL TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 35 MPH TODAY...

EXCEPTIONAL MIXING TO OVER 750 MB ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO NEAR
0 TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRODUCING VERY LOW RH VALUES TO AROUND 20
PERCENT AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...RH VALUES DID NOT COME UP ALL THAT MOST...A PARTIAL
RECOVERY AT BEST.

WHILE THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WE DO NOT THINK RH
VALUES WILL GET AS LOW TODAY...SINCE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASES BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
IN MOST CASES. HOWEVER...A GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL BE UP TO 25-35 MPH
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NORTH SOUTH FACING VALLEYS.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES INCREASING TO 75 PERCENT
OR BETTER. A SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW EVENING
GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO WEST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE IT WEAKENS TO 5 TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP
TO WELL UNDER 50 PERCENT...WHILE REMAINING HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH
WHERE THE SYSTEM STALLS...AND THE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG
A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO
SOME ACCUMULATION SNOW MOST PLACES...FROM I-90 NORTH.

IT TURNS BRISK AND CHILLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STORM PULLING
AWAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. THE AMOUNT OF
SNOWMELT IS STILL IN QUESTION THOUGH. THE TOTAL MODELED SNOWMELT
THROUGH 100 AM ON APRIL 4TH IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.4 AND 3
INCHES. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW ICE JAMS... MAINLY FROM
THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE HOUSATONIC BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE THE MMEFS /HYDROLOGIC
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS/ FROM THE GEFS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING AT FALLS VILLAGE AND GAYLORDSVILLE ON THE HOUSATONIC.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SNOWMELT AND QPF
UNCERTAINTY.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO COOL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV



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