Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 070817
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON EXITING SHOWERS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST 00 UTC SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER 18 UTC THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THE LATEST 05 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECOMING SCATTERED BY 16 UTC.
FOR THIS REASON HAVE HASTENED THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALSO WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
NOTHING IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH
DAKOTA HAVE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TODAY.

LOOKING AT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR FROST WILL BE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS IS SHOWING THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE NAM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE UPPER 20S. MODEL BLENDS ALSO HAVE SOME
LOW CLOUDS BUILDING BACK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO
GO WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

PATTERN CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A POCKET OF COLDER AIR/850 TEMPERATURES HOVER BETWEEN 0C
AND -2C ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COUPLE OF
HIGHLIGHTS TO NOTE...LOWS IN THE 30S WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FROST
AND/OR FREEZE HEADLINES DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND HIGHLIGHT IS IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN THREAT STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND COOLING AT NIGHT...EXPECT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

FRIDAY THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ON FRIDAY A SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA WITH A
DRY/NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE NEXT
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHWEST CONUS AS IT BEGINS
TO EJECT EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOME PHASING OCCURS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGHS DURING THIS TIME. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PIVOTING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN
AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER SLATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BEGINS TO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO THE LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO BETWEEN
+3C AND +5C. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW/SOME
TROUGHING OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MOST ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 06 UTC WAS JUST
EAST OF KBIS AND KMOT AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST. THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...MM


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