Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 061124
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
624 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FEET. FORECAST REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE IS THE SAME. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MID
MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIFT THE CIGS TO LOW VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH CIGS
COMING BACK DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEST COAST LARGE SCALE TROUGH
DEEPENS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A POTENT S/W TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. MID LEVEL HIGH REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH AND NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT TO CAP THE REGION TO MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE CAP TO SPARK
OFF A WEAK SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE INLAND SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON.
A WEAK S/W TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE EVENING HOURS WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THIS WILL OCCUR BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND REASONABLE TO YESTERDAY/S HIGHS AND HAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE AXIS OF A 500 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THAT PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST...AND CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NUEVO
LEON AND TAMAULIPAS STATES IN NEIGHBORING MEXICO...AND SOME OF
THIS MAY SNEAK INTO THE BRO CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS FRONT INITIALLY
APPROACHES...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER
..MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT STALLS WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS PROGGED TO DROP TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY AND
FLOODING RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND. NEITHER WEATHER PHENOMENON HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BY SUCCESSIVE SHIFTS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 6.6 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS MORNING. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE TO WORD SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR AT
LEAST 6 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS TODAY AND MAY NEED TO HOIST AN ADVISORY
IF HEIGHTS REACH 7 FEET WHICH IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LONG FETCH OF BREEZY WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PRODUCING ROUGH SWELLS THAT WILL APPROACH THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
IS LIKELY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE BASED ON THE FUTURE
HEIGHT OF THE SEAS AND/OR STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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