Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 191009
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
609 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AREA UNDER
A MOIST DIFFLUENT SW FLOW TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS
SHOWERS ALREADY CROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND MOVING INTO PORTIONS
OF THE MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS TO THE
SW ACROSS AL/GA. STRONG LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET
FROM GULF COAST NORTH ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS
BECOMES WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING...AND AS THIS PULLS AWAY GENERALLY EXPECT A DECREASE
IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. POPS DECREASE TO AROUND 20
PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL PRECIP COVERAGE GENERALLY
ONLY SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS ON
TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD TO THE REGION. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH GREATER MOISTURE BY SATURDAY. WILL MENTION CHANCE
RAIN NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST
GFS/ECMWF. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE FROM AL/GA ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
AND VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A S/W ENERGY
AND WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER THROUGH THE
MORNING HORUS AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS
OVER THE TERMINALS INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SOLAR INSOLATION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NEW MODEL RUNS AND COULD ADD THIS TO THE TAFS WITH LATER
UPDATES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST ACROSS
THE UPSTATE AND THE AUGUSTA METRO AREA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN UNDER ONE INCH. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS INDICATE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
THE UPSTATE/FOOTHILLS OF NC AND HEADWATERS OF THE AREA RIVERS.
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS/CSRA...TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE SERFC FORECAST AND MMEFS RIVER FORECAST ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN WITH ADVISORY STAGE BEING MET AT COLUMBIA. OTHER RIVER
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE ARE THE ENOREE RIVER AT
WHITMIRE AND THE N. FORK OF THE EDISTO AT ORANGEBURG. AT THIS
TIME...NO ADVISORIES OR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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