Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 271126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
726 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND UPSTREAM OBS HAVE REPORTED SOME
LIGHT RAIN. HAVE UPPED THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN OH/NW PA...BUT STILL HAVE THE SAME TREND OF THE SHOWERS
PRIMARILY TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING. THESE WERE THE ONLY CHANGES
WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

TROUGH/VORT LOBE ACROSS LAKE HURON AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMG WILL PIVOT SOUTH TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW/MID
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE MADE STEADY PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ENTIRE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY MID/LATE MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH...BUT
ENOUGH TO BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS ROUGHLY EAST
OF I-71. PRECIP WILL FIRST REACH NW PA...BUT LATE ENOUGH THAT THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO BE ALL RAIN...NO EARLY MORNING MIX. QPF
IS LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN TODAY. THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW OF THE SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS STARK/MAHONING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL GET
SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WE
MAINTAIN OUR LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH 40S
FAR EAST TO LOWER/POSSIBLY MID 50S ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF RIDGING
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...WARMEST
LOCATIONS WILL BE INLAND. REMAINING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT. PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR THURSDAY LOW. INTERACTION OF JET ENERGY
DEVELOPING A TROUGH/POSSIBLY CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WHICH TAKES A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST
VARIES. OP GFS APPEARS TO REMAIN THE OUTLIER AND HAVE SIDED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF AND GFS ENS WHICH ARE NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER
LOW. SO EVENTUALLY WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AT THIS POINT THURSDAY. KEPT
POPS AT 30 OR 40 PERCENT AT THE HIGHEST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A COUPLE OF CLOSED
LOWS AND HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL
THAT DEEPENS THE NORTHERN CLOSED LOW...AND DIGS IT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS EVENTUALLY LEADS TO
AN EAST COAST LOW THAT IS DEEPER AND RIDES FARTHER UP THE COAST THAN
THE OTHER MODELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE WOULD LIKELY BE ON
THE WEST SIDE OF ANY UPPER TROUGH OR UPPER LOW AND ODDS WOULD FAVOR
DRIER WEATHER BY FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH ON SATURDAY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BY LATE IN THE WEEK WE SHOULD FLUSH OUT THE
REMAINING CHILLY AIR AND BRING IN A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY BY SUNDAY AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MAY
BECOME STATIONARY NEARBY. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW A WAVE ON THE
FRONT. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AS PER THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL KEEP IT WARM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
WITH PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS. LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS LIKELY. CEILINGS WILL TRY IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL GET RID OF
ALL OF THE MVFR CEILINGS SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERAL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK BUT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF EACH TROUGH THE WIND COULD PICK UP FOR A FEW HOURS
AND THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND DIRECTION WILL MAXIMIZE THE
WIND/WAVES ON THE SOUTH SHORE. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH WIND OR WAVES
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





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