Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 040315
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
H5 RIDGE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT...
WHILE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS PARALLELS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS
WILL KEEP TRANQUIL AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVERNGIHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY WILL FEATURE MORNING SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY MORE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CU. ANY CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE GLAKES.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR-STYLE SFC COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL PA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TUE-WED AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...AS IMPULSES OF ENERGY RIPPLE THROUGH ALOFT ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MID-SOUTH. KEPT MENTION OF
SCHC TSTMS TUE AFTN ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA PER SPC DY3
OUTLOOK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING QPF PLACEMENT AND AMTS AND THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS
ANOTHER 5-10PCT TO 50-60 PCT RANGE.

THE PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER STAGNANT WITH MEAN TROUGHING SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EAST FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION
FOCUSING NEAR THE FRONT-SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AND NEWD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES APPEAR TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE FAVORED PCPN ZONE. IN
GENERAL THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH WEAK FORCING
UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND ISOLD-SCT
DIURNAL/TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE COOLER MARITIME FLOW INFLUENCE THAT COULD IMPACT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMP FCST ESPECIALLY WITH POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA MONDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA POSS AT KBFD. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH.

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS WERE TOO MOIST WITH MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A
SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT OF GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCES
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. WITH 20 FOOT WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH
FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS....
AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE RUNNING FROM 8 TO 10 PERCENT FROM THE
ENDLESS MOUNTAIN REGION OF NORTHEAST PA TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY...CRITICAL FIRE SPREAD/RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE MET
IN A SWATH FROM TIOGA...LYCOMING AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SCHUYLKILL LEBANON AND LANCASTER COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...


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