Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 020005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. NEXT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO PINE
AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE A VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN SASK/MANITOBA. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER SRN
SASK/NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WILL DRASTICALLY LIMIT SFC TEMPS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH AS THE ELONGATED SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND CAUSE DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. COULD ALSO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A T-STORM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITED CAPE BUT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE QUICK T-STORMS TO POP
UP...AND WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A FEW
STORMS...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF IN DURATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
/25 TO 30 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR
60...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE AND ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 40S TO 50S.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...WINDY...COOL...AND DRY. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EVEN A BIT OF SBCAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE
TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE COOL NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING A SOME SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
AFFECT KHYR AND POSSIBLY KDLH UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
TERMINALS TO GET VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS TO SWITCH FROM GUSTY SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING THROUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY FOR KDLH AND KHYR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTION AND WIND SHEAR IN
THE FIRST 2KFT. OVERNIGHT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
AND 2KFT WINDS APPROACHING 40KTS...BUT OUT OF THE SAME DIRECTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND SEE IF MODEL FORECASTS ARE STILL INDICATING
THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY IS THE
VERY STRONG WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS THAT SHOULD PICK UP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TO 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO AROUND 30 KT RANGE.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 18Z
WITH MVFR BASES...AND A PERIOD OF CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE. HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES.

A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS OPERATING...BUT
UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL MEANS. A PHONE
LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE UNABLE TO DIGITALLY
RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE USING OCCASIONAL REPORTS
FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AND
OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE PROBLEM IS RESOLVED. AN AMD NOT SKED REMARK HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  59  23  40 /  10  10  10   0
INL  37  51  18  35 /  10  30  20   0
BRD  40  58  23  41 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  44  61  25  42 /  70   0  10  10
ASX  43  62  26  40 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE








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