Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 272041
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE REMAINING AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE GREATEST
RISK AREA LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10
WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS UP NORTH AND LOWEST POPS SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY BECOME
BREEZY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS WHERE INLAND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE FOUND. DO NOT THINK THERE
WILL BE A WHOLE LOT OF COMPLAINING WITH END OF APRIL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS
(NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S). THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARM
UP ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL OCCUR AT THE VERY END
OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN
TO THE AREA. OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE SOME TIME TOWARD
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... PATCHY FOG... AND ELEVATED NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM. AS A
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS EJECTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST STATES...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR...ENDING
RAIN AND FOG CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS BUT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE THERMAL GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING... AND AGAIN TOMORROW FOR ELEVATED WINDS
BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY CREATE LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR THE
BAYS... AND LOW WATER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE MARINE ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY... WITH OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 116 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 18Z SOUTHEAST TEXAS TAFS CENTER
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND
THEN INCREASING WINDS/ LOWERED CIGS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING FROM NEAR LBX
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. GIVEN ANTICIPATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF ACTIVITY... WILL ADVERTISE VCTS MENTION AT ALL
TERMINALS AND HANDLE TSRA IMPACTS AT TERMINALS WITH AMENDMENTS.
AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TODAY RAISE CONCERNS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS /HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z/... WITH ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FROM MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY.

AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER TONIGHT... IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
/WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE/ IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE HOUSTON TERMINALS AROUND 03Z...
CLEARING THE COASTAL SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR
TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS/AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  67  50  72  52 /  40  20  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  70  50  74  53 /  40  20  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  73  57  71  62 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...14



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