Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 051431 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
931 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINANT OUR WEATHER
TODAY. CURRENTLY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED BY MODELS TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 13 OR 14 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS BELIEVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TEMPERATURES AT 9 AM ALREADY RANGE BETWEEN 68 AND 73 DEGREES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BASED 9 AM TEMPERATURES...NUDGING UP TEMPERATURES IN
HUNTSVILLE AND DECATUR TO 85 DEGREES. OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM 79 TO 84 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MIXING WILL ALLOW A PORTIONS OF WINDS AROUND 16 KTS TO
BE REACHED. THEREFORE TWEAKED WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH
AFTER 18Z. OTHERWISE MODELS DO SHOW SOME 850 MB MOISTURE PUSHING IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BUT ONLY EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS AND PREDOMINANTLY
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL
WEATHER.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 611 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE EAST TODAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THIS EITHER FOR A FEW DAYS. THE RIDGING WILL GET STRONGER AND
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY CENTER ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF SOME
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS EACH DAY WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL.

AS THIS IS GOING ON...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRY AND DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS FOR AWHILE
BUT ARE STRUGGLING ON HOW TO HANDLE IT. GUIDANCE ALWAYS HAS ISSUES
WITH THESE POSSIBLY SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THIS EARLY IN
THE SEASON SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO WHAT ULTIMATELY
HAPPENS TO IT AND HOW IT IMPACTS US TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WE START TO GET AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST AS A FRONT TRIES TO INCH CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE WANTS TO ALSO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY INDICATING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP. BUT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. IF THAT WAVE TAPS INTO ANY MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW...
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS BUT THIS IS A LOW CHANCE. THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE LOW FARTHER INLAND AND GIVING US
MORE MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS IT
QUICKER. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS LOW WITH MORE
PRECIP COMING FROM THE GFS BECAUSE OF IT MOVING THE LOW OVER GEORGIA
AND THEREFORE...GIVING THE AREA SOME RETURN MOISTURE/SHOWERS FROM IT.
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

A FRONT TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDING ARE VERY STRONG SO I
IMAGINE THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT IT THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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