Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 280745
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A RATHER
POTENT UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE AREA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL
TEMPS...FROST ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FA AND WILL KEEP PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.

ONCE THE FROST MELTS BY 9 AM...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
CUMULUS CLOUDS INCREASING A BIT DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAM ENERGY. FOR
WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART IN A REGIME OF WEAK
FORCING AND SCANT MOISTURE.

A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD OHIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE EXPERIENCED AS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER
KILOGRAM OF CAPE DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS AND RATHER
SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S FOR
THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. NORMAL HIGH ARE IN THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW FLOW WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH
ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
SIGNAL TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
WITH READINGS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM NORTH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DECK
OF VFR SC CLOUDS IS DISSIPATING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME
BRIEF VALLEY FOG AT KLUK TOWARD SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
OF SOME BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...JUST
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-080>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR






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