Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 181920
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
220 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND RAINS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS TO
VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR ALSO VSBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3 SM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE BRIEFLY. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE MOIST SWLY FLOW. EXPECT SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN AS THIS IMPULSE TRAVELS OVER
THE AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TODAY TO REFLECT RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS.
ALSO ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS...AND THIS PRODUCED MUCH LOWER QPF ACRS
SE TX. THUS...CANCELLED THE FFA ACRS OUR SE TX ZONES. KEPT FFA UP
ACRS LA AND ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS LOWER...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ACRS PORTIONS OF SW LA. REMAINDER OF FCST IS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH JUST SOME MINOR EDITS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...AEX STARTING OUT IFR ON CIGS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
VFR CIGS WITH LGT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS LATER
THIS MORNING. MVFR LATE TNITE AS WE SCATTER OUT ALOFT BUT REMAIN
MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS IN SCUD ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  82  61  78 /  50  20  20  10
LCH  65  82  64  80 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  66  84  65  80 /  60  30  20  10
BPT  65  82  64  80 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19



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