Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 051113
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
613 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to extend the Flash Flood Watch over portions of the
forecast area, and issue the latest Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Will extend portions of the Flash Flood Watch until 05/15Z as
backing flow ahead of a potent ua trough has resulted in the
continuation of convection over northern portions of the forecast
area.  An outflow boundary over the northern reaches of the forecast
area is being intersected by a low level jet, and along with mid
level lift ahead of the mentioned shortwave trough, resulting in
said convection.  There does not appear to be enough instability for
much in the way of severe thunderstorms, however heavy rainfall with
1 to 2 inch amounts do appear likely.  Portions of Gaines, Andrews,
Dawson and Borden counties have been hit the hardest so far, and
unfortunately all of these may see another round of heavy rainfall.
Will extend the Watch in these counties.  As far as Eddy and Lea
counties in New Mexico, it appears the tail end of the line of
convection will make it`s way eastward out of southeastern Lea
County in the next hour, and is moving rapidly enough to leave these
counties out.  Think the convection will begin to wane around 05/13Z
or 05/14Z as the low level jet decreases.  Therefore, will not add
Scurry or Mitchell counties to the Watch.  An update will follow
shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will linger over at least KMAF past 05/12Z, otherwise
expect convection to stay north and east of the rest of the
terminals.  MVFR ceilings will also affect KMAF, but there should be
clearing from west to east with only KHOB and perhaps KINK seeing
any lower ceilings.  Southwest to westerly winds will increase and
become gusty by late this morning, but VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines.


&&

$$

67

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