Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 020046
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
746 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE HAS
HELPED TO FORCE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REPRESENTED BY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM...AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING WHERE THE CURRENT
FORECAST CARRIES LIKELY POPS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL BE
LOW AS OVERALL SHEAR APPEARS QUITE WEAK. THEREFORE STORMS SHOULD
BE PULSE IN NATURE WITH SHORT LIVED SEVERE EPISODES POSSIBLE.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENTLY...AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST
NORTHEAST OF JBR SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MKL. THIS BAND SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH MKL OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH VCTS LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD. VCTS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO ABOVE 10 KTS. A BKN DECK NEAR 5000 FT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SO WILL DEFER TO THE 06Z TAFS TO BETTER TIME THAT IF
NECESSARY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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