Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 040142
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
942 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY AND LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SUN...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEW
POINTS AS WINDS BEGIN TO CALM AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWS TEMPS
TO DROP STEADILY. HIGH CLOUDS CLIPPING NE NC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL LINGER NEAR CST WITH LIGHT
WINDS PRODUCING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS UPR 40S/LOWER 50
INLAND TO UPR 50S/AROUND 60 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CU FIELD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A PERSISTENT
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH PLEASANT HUMIDITIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THIS
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH LOWS
WELL INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOULD SEE A SMALL UPTICK
IN HUMIDITY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY EASTERN PORTIONS
ESPECIALLY IF EXPECTED COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS FURTHER NORTH (SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW) AND PRODUCES MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE 03/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE VICINITY OF
THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INITIAL GENERAL DRIFT TO THE NORTH
BY THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE
IN TRACK AND INTENSITY SOLUTIONS WITH SOME MODELS BRINGING THE LOW
INTO THE NC COAST NEXT WEEKEND WHILE OTHER MODELS INDICATE THE LOW
MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE
WESTERLIES FORECAST TO REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH, STEERING
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK AND PRESENT CHALLENGES TO THE TRACK
FORECASTS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW (CHANCE) POP FORECAST FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. WHATEVER ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK...AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE EXPECTED
BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE
HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE OR NEAR THE COAST WOULD
OBVIOUSLY EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 640 PM SUN...VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ON THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. TEMPS MAY APPROACH DEWPTS LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER MDLS
SHOW BNDRY LYR REMAINING RATHER DRY SO NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK PRODUCING PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INFLUENCE FROM AN
EXPECTED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 930 PM SUN...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE WITH SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES NEAR CST TONIGHT WILL DRIFT E
MONDAY. WSW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SRLY MON MAINLY AOB
10 KTS. LINGERING ENE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS IN 3 TO 5 FT NORTH AND
2 TO 4 FT SOUTH THIS EVENING...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT NORTH AND 1
TO 3 FT SOUTH MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 3 PM SUN...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD
BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE WATERS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. EXPECT WINDS
AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK AND BEYOND WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST HAS BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE. WILL RELY ON CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
CONSENSUS WITH ADJACENT NWS OFFICES TO COME UP WITH THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NORTHEAST FLOW 10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. ON FRIDAY I
WILL VEER WINDS TO THE EAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WHILE
BUILDING SEAS TO 5 TO 7 FT.

WILL INDICATE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW TO 15 KT AND AN UPTICK IN
WAVES WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BEGINNING THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...RF/JME
MARINE...RF/JME/HSA/LEP



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