Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 041948
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...DEVELOPING STORM WILL MOVE NORTH OFFSHORE FLORIDAS EAST COAST AND
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SEAS/SURF WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

...BEACH EROSION ALSO POSSIBLE DURING SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...BREEZY E/ENE WINDS ACROSS ECFL WITH A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING OVER
THE INTERIOR BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS. EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND WESTERN ATLC PROVIDING DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR
COVERAGE WARNING AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. OCCASIONAL ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ON A
DISSIPATING TREND AS IT VENTURES INLAND. GREATEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. IF ANY PERSISTENT SHOWER BANDS
DEVELOP THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HERE. MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE L70S WITH M/U 60S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

TUE...ANOTHER BREEZY/GUSTY DAY WITH E/ENE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS DAY. WEAK MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST GULF MAY INDUCE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
DAY NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON THIS DAY. HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MCO-TTS LINE WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND EASTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
HIGHS IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST AND L80S FOR
THE INTERIOR.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOW PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES IN BOTH THE STRENGTH...FORWARD SPEED AND LOCATION OF
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THE 12Z/18Z NAM IS STILL FASTER THAN THE
GFS IN LIFTING IT NWD ACROSS OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...AND REMAINS
SEVERAL MB DEEPER. THE ECM HOLDS FIRM IN A WEAKER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF
MORE SLOWLY AND LIFTING NWD MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE AT A FORWARD SPEED
SIMILAR TO THE NAM. THIS PACKAGE TAKES CONSENSUS BLEND THAT GIVES A
BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE STRONGER/CLOSER SOLUTIONS.. THIS YIELDS WINDS
AND SEAS HIGHER THAN THE OFT-TRUSTED ECM...BUT WINDS UP BEING PRETTY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NHC PROBS FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
(SUB)TROPICAL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

NE LOW LVL WINDS WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
EVEN A FEW GUSTY SQUALLS HORE ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR WITH LOWEST CHANCES FROM THE INTERIOR NWWD ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BREEZY/MARGINALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME BEACH
EROSION AROUND THE TIMES OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES...
WHICH WILL BE NEAR BUT JUST COMING DOWN FROM THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
DUE TO LAST NIGHT`S FULL MOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NWD WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION CENTER. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. LOW CENTER LIFTS FARTHER N-
NNE OF THE CAPE BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NW. THIS ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO WRAP AROUND ITS BACK SIDE SLOT AND
START WORKING INTO THE NRN AND CTRL CWA. KEPT A LOW SHOWER CHANCE
ACROSS NORTH CSTL AREAS AND SRN SECTIONS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK
AND SPEED OF THE LOW.

SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR MID WEEK WITH
NUMEROUS STRONG RIP CURRENTS. HIGHS AROUND 80 AT THE COAST AND
L-M80S INLAND.

THU-MON (PREV)...THE MID LVL CLOSED LOW AND SFC LOW SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER NW MID LVL FLOW AND
LOWERING MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO POPS IN THE 10-20 PCT
RANGE AND OVERALL DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A N/NE SWELL IS EXPECTED THU WITH
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUING FOR THU. DECREASING
SWELLS/WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL LOWER THE RIP CURRENT
RISK BY SAT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE ON
TUE...ESP SOUTH FROM A KMCO-KTTS LINE. ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF KMLB AS WELL. BREEZY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING OVER THE
INTERIOR BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SHRA/TSRA ON TUE. BREEZY/GUSTY E/ENE WINDS
AGAIN ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-TUE...POOR/HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
TUE. SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE ON TUE NEAR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. E/ENE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS GULF STREAM/
OFFSHORE WITH 15-20 KTS STILL OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-7 FT. AT 4PM WILL KEEP CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS NEAR SHORE AND
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WITH SCA CONDS ELSEWHERE. INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE. ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD FROM SEBASTIAN INLET.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
FROM NRN/NW BAHAMAS AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TUE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WED. NE WINDS TUE NIGHT VEER TO NNE-N EARLY WED AND
NNW-NW BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES
NWD TO OUR EAST. PRELIM INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FARTHER INTO WED AS SOME SWELL COMPONENT WILL KEEP COMBINED
SEAS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 7FT. WILL DEFER AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST
CYCLE TO GET A LITTLE BETTER FEEL FOR PEAK WINDS/SEAS AND TIMING OF
SUBSEQUENT DECAY.

THU-SAT...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE MARINE AREA...
INITIALLY STOUT NW FLOW WILL WEAKEN...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY OFFSHORE
AT LEAST INTO FRI. NE SWELL OF AT LEAST MODERATE (4-5FT) HGT WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  79  71  79 /  20  20  40  40
MCO  66  83  68  86 /  10  30  30  30
MLB  72  80  72  83 /  20  40  50  40
VRB  70  80  71  83 /  30  60  50  50
LEE  65  83  66  84 /  10  20  10  20
SFB  65  83  67  83 /  10  20  30  30
ORL  66  82  68  85 /  10  30  30  30
FPR  70  79  70  83 /  40  60  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI


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