Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 041901
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A LOVELY RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LIMITING CLOUD FORMATION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM. IF THERE IS A SHOWER OR
A THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS...IT WOULD POP UP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA
STATE LINE. ADJUSTED MINS DOWNWARD ABOUT TWO DEGREES TONIGHT WHILE
ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO TO MAXES FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MORE
COMMON IN THE EARLY SUMMER MONTHS WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES
BY MID TO LATE WEEK BUT BE HELD UP BY RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNTIL LATE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A NON TROPICAL LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND BRING IT CLOSE TO THE COAST OR INLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
BRINGING IT WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH SO THAT IT COULD INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST. OTHER MODELS
KEEP THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST. BELIEVE GFS IS THE OUTLIER. IN ANY
CASE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
TERRAIN AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
THE MS VALLEY MONDAY.

LOWS WILL STAY MILD IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL GET LITTLE RAIN BUT
MOUNTAINS COULD GET A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             56  83  57  83 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  81  58  82 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  82  58  82 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              50  80  54  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




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