Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 202154
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
754 AM CHST TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 13 TO 23 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS SETTING OFF A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 10 NORTH ACROSS MOST OF
MICRONESIA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND
WILL PROBABLY IMPACT MARIANAS WEATHER IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. SINCE
IT DID NOT ARRIVE YET...PRUNED BACK THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL
THURSDAY. TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACCORDINGLY BY ADDING 1 DEGREE TO LAND AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST
REFRESHED DAYS 3 THROUGH 10 OF THE WINDS AND RECALCULATED THEIR
DEPENDENT GRIDS SUCH AS WIND GUST AND WIND WAVE HEIGHT.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT WE WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF MEETING
THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST
BRIEFLY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY COULD BE IN THE OFFING. WILL CHECK
THAT IN MORE DETAIL WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM WESTERN MICRONESIA
THROUGH A BROAD...WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
POHNPEI NEAR 6N156E...THEN CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO END NEAR
EQ165E. CONVECTION REMAINED CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS
OVERNIGHT BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER KOSRAE
WATERS AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY AT
KOSRAE BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. SCAT SHOWS
VARIABLE FLOW NEAR KOSRAE AND SHOWER MOVEMENT IS VERY SLOW BUT IN
GENERAL TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF POHNPEI
TODAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY WEDNESDAY AS ACTIVE
WEATHER MOVES NORTH OF THE ISLAND. FOR MAJURO...AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE COMING DAYS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN A REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH
AND EAST OF MAJURO THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
STREAM LINE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BUT SHOULD HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT TO WEATHER AT CHUUK. A ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO SET UP NEAR CHUUK WEDNESDAY
WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER YAP
WILL BRING HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO YAP TODAY WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AT KOROR. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY SETTLE INTO YAP
STATE AND PALAU SATURDAY AS THE CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI MOVES
WESTWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.