Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 271144
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
444 AM MST MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE RAPIDLY THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ALL REMAINING SHOWERS AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS
SHOW RATHER MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH AREA DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE
TODAY AS WE STILL SEE INFLUENCE FROM THE EXITING TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
INCLUDING FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WITH
500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 580DM. STILL COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN GILA COUNTY AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE EVEN LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OVERHEAD.
HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
DESERTS...BEFORE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SET IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM
NEAR 20C ON WEDNESDAY TO 23-24C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIDDLE 90S
ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGHS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN MANY LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO FRIDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF NOW...MODELS TAKE
THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEVELOP A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT MONDAY...SO WE MAY
AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
12Z TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE CA TODAY WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS
EVENING...ACQUIRING MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



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