Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 061355
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
955 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. AFTERNOON OR EVENING
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 14Z...FRONT FROM N OF CMH TO NEAR PIT TO NR HGR. HIGH CENTER NOW
EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE IN NEW ENGLAND.

MID DECK CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING UNDER THE RIDGE.
WITH SUCH A WEAK WIND FLOW...HARD TO PINPOINT HOURLY POPS...BUT DID
GO A BIT FURTHER WEST INTO SRN WV COAL FIELDS WITH 20/30 POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.  ANY CELLS IN OUR SOUTH SHOULD
DRIFT W. YET 12Z SOUNDING AT RNK STILL INDICATED A STRONG MID LEVEL
INVERSION/CAP AT 14-15 THSD FT.

DID WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES.  RAPID INCREASE IN SURFACE TEMPS 14Z TO 17Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL TRY TO MAKE IT OVER THE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON BOTH
DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. TEMPERATURES STAY WARM
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MOISTURE FROM LOW ALONG THE COAST...AND
SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SOMEWHAT COOLER...AND LESS HUMID AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...
WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER MID AND UPPER RIDGE...WITH NOT MANY
FEATURES TO GRASP/CLUTCH AND RUN WITH.

TIL 16Z. PATCHY IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG...MAINLY AT EKN...CKB
AND PKB TIL 13Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SCT MID CLOUDS.

AFTER 16Z...THANKS TO A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. DRY ELSEWHERE. PREVAILING VFR...
SCT CLOUDS AROUND 7000 FEET AGL LOW LANDS. SCT-BKN 4000-7000 FEET
AGL IN THE MOUNTAINS...BRIEFLY LOWER IN A FEW SHOWERS.

AFTER 01Z...GENERALLY SCT MID CLOUDS...OCCASIONALLY BKN IN
MOUNTAINS...THEN MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING MAJOR TERMINALS
AFTER 06Z.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY 4 TO 8 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE...VERY LIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEPENDING ON CLOUDS...AND RAIN FROM
TODAY...THERE MAY BE MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG THAN FORECAST TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV









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