Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 251023
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES AS THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL HOLD OVER THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST
UNTIL THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A SURFACE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS A
RESULT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED WITH THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR...MOST OF IT WAS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THEREFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO OF
PUERTO RICO AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIMITED OR NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE GREATER PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER SOME BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS CAN MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WINDWARD SECTIONS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN...UNDER A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY AFTER
TUESDAY...AS A RESULT...SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...WILL BE
SHALLOW AND OF SHORT DURATION. IN ADDITION...WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS
THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST HIGHER THAN NORMAL 1000-850MB
THICKNESS VALUES WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL 925 MB TEMPERATURES. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND TKPK DUE TO CIGS AND ALSO
AT TJBQ IN SHRA BTWN 25/18 AND 26/00Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO DURG SAME PERIOD. WINDS
ALF GENLY SE 5 TO 15 KT BCMG BY FL100 W 10 TO 15 KT UP TO FL250.
SFC WINDS AFT 25/14Z WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZES IN SE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT STILL POSE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ON THE EXPOSED ATLANTIC BEACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  91  79 /  20   0  10   0
STT  86  78  88  79 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/27


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