Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 252206
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
406 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BEGINNING
MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z WED)...A FAIRLY LARGE UPPER TROF COVERS THE
WESTERN STATES FROM CANADA TO MEXICO THIS AFTN. A STRONG VORT MAX
IN THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER SRN NV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS NRN AZ.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL UT TONIGHT. THE
REST OF THE ELONGATED TROF CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO UT TONIGHT AND THIS PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU THE
STATE ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

SNOW LEVELS NEAR 8000 FT THIS EVE SHOULD LOWER TO ABOUT 6500 FT BY
MORNING WITH SOME IMPACT ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS ROUTES. AFTER
COORDINATION...HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
AS ROAD CREWS WILL BE OUT REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON MAJOR ROUTES. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS ON THESE ROUTES DUE TO LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FALLING
SNOW AND SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION. THE IMPACT WILL BE GREATER ON
SECONDARY ROUTES ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FT WITH SNOW PACKED ROADS
LIKELY.

PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUN AS THE MAIN TROF
AXIS MOVES PAST AND THE SRN CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF SOUTH OF 4 CORNERS.

PRECIP WANES THRU THE DAY SUN AS THE CLOSED LOW CONSOLIDATES AND
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE FLOW DEVELOPING AN ELY COMPONENT. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPS A THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIP GOING OVER THE
NERN CWA INTO MON AND TEMPS WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. EXPECT
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO CHURN SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACNW STATES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RAMP UP A BIT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WED THROUGH THU AS
SUCH. GOOD CONSISTENCY IN GLOBALS PROMOTING FURTHER WARMING ALOFT
WITHIN THIS FLOW...WITH H7 TEMPS SPIKING TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8 C BY
MIDDAY THU DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. CONTINUED A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THU WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80 ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND NEAR
90 DIXIE...THU BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SPOTTY HIGH BASED
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE TERRAIN THU AFTERNOON BUT NET
IMPACT APPEARS MINIMAL A THIS TIME.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES LATE WEEK REGARDING FURTHER EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...PARTICULARLY EXTENT OF SPLIT
OR LACK THEREOF THU NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE THE NORTHERN SPLIT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CARRY THE BULK OF ENERGY/COLD POOL
BUT VARIANCE EXISTS REGARDING BREADTH OF COOLING AND TO SOME REGARD
PRECIP FOCUSED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
COOLER...AND EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE TERRAIN COINCIDENT
WITH AND BEHIND PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE KSLC TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH 00Z WITH POTENTIAL OF BRIEF
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
STEADY MODERATE MVFR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN AFTER 03Z WITH
WINDS SWITCHING TO A NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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