Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 180038
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
838 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER JUST NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY AS EVIDENT ON THIS EVENINGS SURFACE ANALYSIS. SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY SAW BETTER PROPAGATION AND COLLISION OF THE SEA
BREEZES WHICH OCCURRED JUST EAST OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP INLAND TODAY BUT DID NOT
HAVE NEAR THE COVERAGE OR STRENGTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING.
00Z TBW SOUNDING DID SHOW SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH
MAY HAVE HELPED LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE TODAY. HI RES
GUIDANCE THIS EVENING IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP A COUPLE MORE
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH AROUND 2Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF I 4 BUT NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED GIVEN THE PATTERN
TODAY. FOR THE UPDATE...NUDGED POPS DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNRISE FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN A WEAK VORT MAX ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BEFORE SUNRISE...COULD SEE SOME FOG REDEVELOP NEAR PGD WITH SOME
LOWING CIGS AT SRQ AND LAL. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN SHIFT INLAND. SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF I 75...THEREFORE INCLUDED VCSH WORDING
LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR LAL.


&&

.MARINE...NO UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SLIGHTLY
TRIM RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND AWAY FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH OLD STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA INTO SATURDAY WASHING OUT SUNDAY KEEPING
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WHILE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. SEAS
EXPECTED AROUND 2 FT OR LESS NEARSHORE...TO UP TO 3 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS BRIEFLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MIDWEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO UPDATES MADE THIS EVENING AND NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  85  73  85 /  10  20  20  30
FMY  73  89  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GIF  71  88  71  89 /  40  40  30  50
SRQ  72  84  72  84 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  68  86  67  87 /  20  30  20  40
SPG  74  85  74  85 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA



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