Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 251552
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251700Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PART OF SE NM AND SW TX...

MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS...FUELS INFORMATION...AND RECENT RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ON TRACK. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 04/25/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0321 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH A
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL
TRACK EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AN EWD-MOVING RIDGE BUILDS NWD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SERN STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ERN
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE AND FRONTS.

...PORTIONS OF WRN TX...NM...FAR SERN AZ...
MODESTLY ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW S OF THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WSWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS VERTICAL MIXING DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS THIS
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH RH OF 10-14 PERCENT ACROSS THE CRITICAL
AREA COVERING A SMALL PART OF SERN NM AND FAR SW TX WHERE DRY FUELS
EXIST. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE LEE OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND
LOCAL TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS TO THE FLOW AROUND THESE MOUNTAINS...WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT THESE CONDITIONS.

SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...A BROAD ELEVATED AREA COVERS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS TOO LOW
FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION TO THE W/S OF THE CRITICAL AREA WITHOUT
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THESE REGIONS. TO THE NW OF THE CRITICAL
AREA...THE LACK OF WARMER TEMPERATURES/LOWER RH PRECLUDE CRITICAL
DESIGNATION. DESPITE MARGINALLY CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
POTENTIALLY EXTENDING NE/E OF THE CRITICAL AREA...GREEN-UP AND
RELATED FUEL MOISTENING IN THESE LOCATIONS PRECLUDE CRITICAL
DESIGNATION.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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