Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 040913
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK RUN...DCNR BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
513 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. WITH 20 FOOT WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. FINE FUEL
MOISTURE IS RUNNING FROM 8 TO 10 PERCENT FROM THE ENDLESS
MOUNTAIN REGION OF NORTHEAST PA TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY.

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY FROM
TIOGA...LYCOMING AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SCHUYLKILL LEBANON AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
LIKELY STATEWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7200-9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 5 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20
                    TO 21 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............5   14  17  24  30  37  43  47  48  51  55
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................55  54  57  62  68  71  73  74  74  75  74
RH..................51  52  46  38  33  31  30  30  28  28  28
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......8   8   9   10  12  12  13  13  14  14  13
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.2 2.2 4.9 7.2 8.4 8.9 9.0 9.0 8.6 7.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....0   1   5   10  15  17  18  18  20  20  21
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE
                    EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0200...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1500-2700 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 22 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............58  61  62  62  62  62  62  62  84  84  84  84
WEATHER COV.........                    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................74  73  68  65  62  60  59  59  59  58  57  57
RH..................29  31  40  47  56  64  69  73  77  81  84  87
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......13  13  13  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......7.1 6.2 5.1 3.9 2.7 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....22  22  22  21  18  17  17  17  17  17  16  15
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   3   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 0800...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6100-8000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............84  84  91  91  91  91  91  91  93  93  93  93
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
TEMP................57  57  58  59  61  62  64  66  67  68  68  68
RH..................89  89  89  86  81  77  73  70  68  66  64  65
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT WIND SPD......12  12  10  10  10  9   9   8   8   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.5 1.5 1.8 2.3 3.1 4.1 5.6 7.1 8.0 7.8 7.0 6.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  13  12  10  9   8   8   9   10  10  9   8
LAL.................4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP
REQUESTED BY...RYAN LING
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.ROCKR.01/CTP


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