Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
000
FNUS73 KLSX 051528
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CARTY...U.S FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0952 CDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
FALL TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT TODAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AT THE BURN SITE BUT
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS REYNOLDS
COUNTY WILL NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 82.
RH..................MIN 39 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND 2-3 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EYE LEVEL WINDS
                    WERE CALCULATED WITH AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF
                    0.3 FOR PARTIALLY SHELTERED LIGHT LOGGING
                    SLASH (FUEL MODEL 11).
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (14250 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59.
RH..................MAX 85 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND 1-2 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT FROM MID EVENING THROUGH
                    THE OVERNIGHT. EYE LEVEL WINDS WERE
                    CALCULATED WITH AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3
                    FOR PARTIALLY SHELTERED LIGHT LOGGING
                    SLASH (FUEL MODEL 11).
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
                    OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 82.
RH..................MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTH
                    2-3 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 5 MPH. EYE LEVEL
                    WINDS WERE CALCULATED WITH AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR
                    OF 0.3 FOR PARTIALLY SHELTERED LIGHT LOGGING
                    SLASH (FUEL MODEL 11).
WIND...20 FT........LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTH
                    5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....VERY GOOD (17502 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...KANOFSKY
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG GILBERT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150505.CARTY.01/LSX






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.