Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 061202
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
802 AM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

VALID 00Z THU MAY 07 2015 - 00Z THU MAY 14 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES ALOFT THAT DEVELOP BY NEXT
WEEK, THERE IS STILL A GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  TRADES INITIALLY SUPPORTED BY EASTERN PACIFIC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STRENGTHEN FRI-SUN AS AN UPSTREAM HIGH PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE.  THIS HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING LIKELY
ALLOWING TRADES TO SLACKEN A BIT NEXT WEEK.  MOST OF THE PRIMARILY
WINDWARD FOCUSED SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES VARIABLE BETWEEN SLIGHTLY UNDER AN
INCH AND A LITTLE OVER 1.25 INCHES.  ALOFT A RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN/PROGRESS EASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THEN
A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST/NORTH OF THE STATE SHOULD SUPPORT
MODEST TROUGHING OVER THE AREA BY MON-WED.  FOR THE DEGREE OF
TROUGHING, TYPICAL PREDICTABILITY IN THE DAYS 5-7 TIME FRAME
ARGUES FOR A COMPROMISE AMONG LATEST GUIDANCE.

RAUSCH

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