Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS National HQ

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NOUS41 KWBC 171255

Public Information Statement, Comment Request: Amended
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
856 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2015

To:         Subscribers:
           -Family of Services
           -NOAA Weather Wire Service
           -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
            Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From:       Eli Jacks
            Acting Chief, Forecast Services Division

Subject:    Amended: Extension of comment period for Experimental
            Wind Speed Probabilities-Based Tropical Cyclone
            Area Graphic through November 30, 2015

Amended to extend comment period through November 30, 2015

The NWS Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) is extending
the user feedback period for its experimental wind speed
probabilities-based tropical cyclone danger graphic through
November 30, 2015, the official end of the 2015 hurricane season.

The current Tropical Cyclone Danger Area graphic uses the
mariners 1-2-3 rule to outline avoidance areas for active tropical
cyclones. Feedback from users indicated that the 1-2-3 methodology
has led to over-warned large avoidance areas. For the 2012 and
2013 hurricane seasons, TAFB provided, on an experimental basis,
a Tropical Cyclone Danger Area Graphic based on the 34-kt wind
speed probabilities through 72 hours from the latest tropical
cyclone advisory for an active tropical cyclone using the
10 percent and 50 percent 34-kt wind speed probability contours.
Feedback suggested that the 10 percent contour represented a
much smaller potential avoidance area than what is considered
adequate for planning purposes.

Beginning with the 2014 Hurricane season, the graphic outlined
avoidance areas using the 5 percent and 50 percent 34-kt wind
speed probability contours from the latest tropical cyclone
advisory issuances for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.

In the event there are no active tropical cyclones in either
basin, the graphic will be blank with the following wording:


These experimental tropical cyclone danger area graphics are
available four times daily at 0400, 1000, 1600 and 2200 Universal
Coordinated Time (UTC) on the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
website at:

A comprehensive description of the tropical cyclone danger area
graphic is posted at:

Users are encouraged to provide feedback on this experimental
product by using the brief survey and comment form available on
line at:

After the comment period ends, TAFB will decide whether to
transition the graphic to operational and whether to terminate
the legacy mariners 1-2-3 version.

A link to all NHC experimental products is also provided at:

If you have comments or questions, please contact:

Hugh Cobb
Chief, Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch
National Hurricane Center
Phone:   305-229-4454

NWS Public Information Statements are online at:

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