Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 021748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...WOLF



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