Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 030836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW WEST OF KYKN WITH A BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN
FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30S AND 40S OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RAP TRENDS AND NOWCASTING HAVE BEEN USED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AS WILL THE SMALLER COMPLEX IN CENTRAL IOWA.

OVERALL MOISTURE/FORCING TRENDS SUPPORT THE CENTRAL IOWA STORM
COMPLEX TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY
AS IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE BEHIND. AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FORCING WEAKENS QUICKLY WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE WESTERN IOWA STORM COMPLEX TO DISSIPATE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL EITHER REMAIN DRY OR SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES.

CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WARM IT WILL GET TODAY. IF THE HIGH
CS/CI CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
THEN HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 ARE MORE LIKELY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. IF TEMPERATURES
WOULD GET INTO THE MID 80S...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHEST THERE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERNALLY...
SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. IF THIS WOULD HAPPEN
TO OCCUR...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS/COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NECESSARY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE MARGINAL 5 PERCENT RISK AREA FOR
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. WITH THE STAGNANT SURFACE FLOW AND UPPER WIND CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTATION...THINKING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF FLOODING.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHIFTING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LITTLE OR
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH...OTHERWISE 70S TO LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ARE
STILL ON TARGET...DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND RAIN COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE IS LIMITED ENOUGH
TO USE VICINITY WORDING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF MOSTLY HI CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS LOWEST 1500
FT AGL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY. COLD WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA WITH POSSIBLE
HIGH END MVFR STORMS AFTER 04/01Z AT DBQ AND CID TERMINALS WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS MORE LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS



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