Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 170427
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1127 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM WISCONSIN
INTO MISSOURI. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE
CLOUDS SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN THE DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LOW NEAR KAMA. DEW POINTS WERE 30S AND
40S WITH 20S ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S AND HIGHER RAN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
TOWARD SUNRISE...THE LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MIGHT ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. IF
THIS OCCURS...TEMPERATURES THERE MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
FORECAST.

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MID AND UPPER 70S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.  WITH THE COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN FORECAST
BY THE MODELS THIS WEEKEND...I EXPECT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST COMING UP.

FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD DAY.  THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING QPF INTO THE AREA ALL DAY SATURDAY.  I DONT THINK
THIS WILL HAPPEN AS THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST FLUID OF THE MODELS
AND IS AN OUTLIER HERE.  ANY PRECIP THAT WILL OCCUR WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY EVENING HAVE STARTED
TO INTRODUCE MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.  ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS AND THE SUBSEQUENT CLOSED H5 LOW.  AS
FAR AS THUNDER GOES...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER AS I DONT SEE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  SPC
DOES HAVE THE AREA IN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT IS WAY TO EARLY WITH THIS COMPLEX PATTERN
TO NAIL DOWN ANY AREA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY
OCCUR.  WITH THE COMPLEX PATTERN....WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
RISK WANE IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

OVERNIGHT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO NW FLOW AND
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.  WELL THIS IS IN A PERIOD OF CLOSED
LOWS AND BLOCKING PATTERN WITH PHASING ISSUES...THE LARGE SCALE
SENSIBLE WEATHER SIGNAL IS VIRTUALLY THE SAME...WE SHOULD EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK THAN THE CURRENT WEEK.  SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME REGARDING TEMPS AND OTHER OUTCOMES ARE DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN...AS SUCH STUCK TO THE BLENDS.  THERE ARE SOME CLIPPERS THAT
TRY TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING SOME
PRECIP.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN TO BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN IOWA
AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE BOUTS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERCAST...BUT LIKE TODAY...SOME LONG
PERIODS OF CLEAR AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10 KTS FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS ARE FORECASTING
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. OUR FORECAST REMAINS CONFIDENTLY DRY.

ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ERVIN





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