Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 230115 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
815 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO SLACKEN TOMORROW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL DIE OFF
DRAMATICALLY.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS


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