Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDVN 020822
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
322 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

AT 300 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO
EASTERN IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF MU
CAPE AOA 500 J/KG AND A SWATH OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
ARW/NMM ARE RUNNING A BIT SLOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE THE CURRENT
WEATHER MODELED WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS.
HIGHEST QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
FAR EASTERN FRINGE...WITH SPOTTIER RAIN COVERAGE CENTRAL. AFTER
12Z...HIGHEST QPF AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NIL. RAIN WILL END IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BLENDED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE...AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.  THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SEES ONE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS
FORECAST ISSUES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A FEW QUICK
SYSTEMS...THEN AN ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

LIKE ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT IN THE AFD...A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST.  AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING IT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND THEN INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVING THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA.  THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
MOST PRECIP NORTH INTO OUR AREA.  WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE SREF MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE TEMPS IN EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SNOWFALL.  THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM...A
MEMBER OF THE SREF...HAS NO QPF FOR US DURING THIS TIME.  SO THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IN THE SREF. THINK THE SREF MEAN IS
BEING SWAYED HEAVILY BY ONE MEMBER...SO DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
SNOW.

FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA.  ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN.  LATEST RUNS BRING
THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...SO ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS.  WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IT
APPEARS THAT RASN MIX WOULD BE PREFERRED FOR ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE FINESCALE
FEATURES ARE YET TO BE AGREED UPON.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ARE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF BEING WET AND
THE GFS BEING DRY. OBVIOUSLY AS WE GET CLOSER THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FORECAST CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL IA LATE TONIGHT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE. NEARBY
MDCRS AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATED
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...GOING FROM AROUND 15 KTS AT THE
SURFACE TO AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 KTS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR OR SHARP VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS.

THE ADVANCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING...
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CIGS HIGHER THAN WHAT THE TOO MOIST
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ALL SITES BY
LATE MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR...WHICH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.