Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 160417
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1117 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WERE
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO WESTERN IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS NEAR KMEM AND KHOT CONNECTED BY A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH 30S FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND HIGHER RAN FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

QUIET...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

STARTING AROUND SUNSET...SOME VERY WEAK FORCING BEGINS MOVING UP
FROM MISSOURI AND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 8000 FEET
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF
THE AREA AND THEN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WHERE SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TONIGHT IN CONCERT WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS... TEMPERATURES MAY DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED IN THE ROCK AND
SAUK VALLEYS OF ILLINOIS AND IN FAVORED COOL AREAS NORTH OF I-80 IN
IOWA.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING OF
SKIES. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA.  AS OF TODAY...SOMEWHAT
OF A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DEVELOPED FOR THE 12Z RUNS.  IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE 12Z GFS NOW HAS A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THAT OF THE
ECMWF...GEM....GEFS AND SREF MODELS. THIS GIVES ME A MUCH HIGHER
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT YESTERDAYS FORECAST AND TODAYS FORECAST
COULD VERIFY. THE GFS HAS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS TRENDED MORE TO THE
CONSISTENT ECMWF.  SO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS DRY...WITH MAYBE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.  AS WITH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE AFTERNOON.  WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IS THAT THE HIGH TEMPS
HAVE BEEN WARMER AND THE LOW TEMPS AT NIGHT HAVE BEEN BOTTOMING
OUT.  AS A RESULT...HAVE REDUCED DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AM.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AS OF THIS AFD WRITING FOR THE
AREA.  THEN OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING IT APPEARS THAT OUR CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL RETURN. I THINK THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE LOW ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MUCH OF OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF I80.  ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA NW FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION.  THIS LEADS TO A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE TRACK OF
COOLER AIR FROM CANADA MAKING ITS WAY DOWN HERE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...DESPITE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO
THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WAVES OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. VIRGA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
IOWA...BUT THAT IS UNLIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND. THE GUSTY EAST
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND FROM 06Z THIS
EVENING...THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER...AROUND 5 TO 9 KTS.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ERVIN






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