Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 041718

1218 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Main concern for aviators during this TAF cycle will be the potential
for thunderstorm activity at the terminals from late this afternoon
into tonight. VFR conds are expected thru the period with sct-bkn
mid-lvl clouds this afternoon giving way to a bkn deck around 5kft
around 22Z-00Z when thunderstorms move into the terminals. Vis
restrictions are not expected with these storms. Storms are expected
to cont at the terminals thru 05Z-07Z when thunderstorms will shift
north of the terminals however a few could remain in the VC in the
terminals until the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Otrw...expect clouds too
sct out around 10kft tomorrow morning.




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