Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 160457
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Tonight through Sunday: Currently, weak upper low is passing through
the area, with remaining ascent pushing eastward. This will lead to
a west-to-east end to the light shower activity over the CWA, with
most of the rain exiting the forecast area around sunset. Shortwave
ridging will occur in the wake of the upper low on Thursday,
resulting in much of the daytime hours dry on Thursday. The closed
upper low over the Four Corners region will slowly open and shift
eastward into the Central Plains into the weekend. Precipitation
chances will likewise increase with time over the CWA, with the best
chances currently projected Saturday into Sunday. Instability will
increase on Friday ahead of the system, with thunder accompanying
some of the precipitation. Lapse rates are not all that impressive
by Saturday, and with abundant cloud cover/precipitation, overall
instability will be marginal at best. Still, strong upper ascent on
Sat/Sat night will help spawn widespread weak convection, with some
activity producing brief periods of moderate rainfall. The overall
severe weather threat during this multi-day period remains low. As
for temperatures, Thursday and Friday are expected to be the warmest
during the forecast package, with highs in the 70s. Maximum
temperatures will gradually cool a few degrees both Saturday and
Sunday as the upper low approaches/moves over the CWA, with an
eventual cold front passing through on Sunday. Upon the frontal
passage Sunday evening, precipitation will finally come to an end
across the area.

Monday through Wednesday: Temperatures will be near to slightly
below seasonal levels each day. Dry weather is expected on Monday
and much of Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into the region.
As the high shifts southward, a weak frontal boundary associated
with a large upper low over the northern CONUS may settle into the
forecast area by Tuesday night into Wednesday, providing a slight
chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Latest satellite shots showing low status beginning to breakup as of
5z. Quick look out west where clouds have not been too much of an
issue reveals developing VSBY restrictions over eastern Kansas. Based
on latest trends...have reintroduced IFR conditions after the 8z
time frame. The only exception is for STJ where IFR conditions will
likely be delayed until after 10z. Low cigs/VSBYs will gradually
improve by 15z...however a developing inversion aloft will likely
keep MVFR cigs around through mid afternoon. VFR conditions should
return late in the afternoon with no additional restrictions
expected. Winds to remain light and from the southeast through the
fcst cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...32






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