Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KEAX 032335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the evening and early overnight
hours, then showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to build
southeast into at least the KSTJ TAF site after 06z. Expect ongoing
convection to weaken as it approaches KC area TAF sites, so have
included a period of showers with vicinity thunder for IXD, MCI, and
MKC after 08z. Showers will diminish and clear out of the region by
15z, leaving skies mainly clear for most of Monday. Winds will remain
out of the SSW through the period, generally at 10-12 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.