Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 022125

425 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

Issued at 424 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

Tonight - Sunday:

The combo of isentropic ascent on the 305K surface and a weakening
h7 vorticity max are the driving forces of an area of elevated
showers that has affected northern MO for most of today. The showers
are expected to exit the northeastern counties by sunset. Lacking
much CAPE will continue to leave thunder out of the forecast with
this precipitation. Associated mid-level cloud deck will also clear
from west to east this evening. Thinning high level convective cloud
debris from the CO Rockies expected to gradually spread east

Will be monitoring evolution of CO convection this evening as HRRR
has been allowing the convection to slowly weaken as it rolls off
the Front Range and across KS. No other model depicts this. The 12z
NAM does generate some weak signals as do the GFS, ECWMF and SREF.
The NAM once again generates moderate moist isentropic ascent but
not as deep as what was associated with today`s convection. All of
the models generate weak convectively induced vorticity maxima but
their locations vary greatly so confidence to low to insert any PoPs
at this time.

A strengthening low level jet on Sunday should yield a warm and
breezy day. Will maintain a dry forecast but as noted above will
monitor CO convection tonight.

Sunday night - Tuesday:

A large shortwave trough aloft tracking east across southern Canada
will force a Northern Plains cold front southeast Sunday night. Much
of the push will occur Sunday night and early Monday and as
suspected yesterday the models are not taking the front as far
south. With h5 heights increasing on Monday this looks like the
correct trend. Would not be surprised if the front never reaches
northern MO. Lacking any discernible trigger south of the stalled
front will focus highest PoPs across far northern MO and tighten the
gradient southward. Lacking confidence have lowered PoPs south of
I-70 to 20%.

As h5 heights continue to increase Monday night through Tuesday the
frontal boundary will lift sufficiently far enough north of the CWA
to basically go with a dry forecast on Tuesday. Should be able to
reach 80+ for highs on Tuesday.

Tuesday night - Saturday:

Looks like an unsettled pattern and period. While it is not likely
to rain every period there is too much uncertainty on timing the
numerous shortwaves and other perturbations that track northeast out
of the southwestern U.S. With a likely subtropical connection can
envision increasing chances for heavier convection.

The medium range models continue to advertise a shortwave trough
lifting northeast through the Central Plains on late Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Will bring convection back into the CWA Tuesday
night favoring the western portion of the region.

After this feature lifts away from the Mid MO River Valley the
operational models swing a few more through the region Thursday
through Saturday. Mid range chance PoPs seem reasonable but timing
issues abound.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR conditions this afternoon despite thick mid level ceilings around
10k ft and showers.

An area of showers with pockets of MVFR ceilings with the heavier
showers will slowly shift east across northern MO this afternoon.
Activity should gradually weaken. Band of spotty showers over eastern
KS will also track east and affect the west central MO terminals
through mid afternoon, then clouds thin out.

Increasingly southwesterly low level jet will advance east overnight.
Expect these winds to reach the ground by mid morning resulting in
gusty conditions.




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