Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 242016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB





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