Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 301709

1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR through the period. Breezy afternoon winds will relax around
sunset and eventually become variable as surface high pressure moves
through the area.


KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-



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