Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 010451
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

Well, it`s another beautiful spring day in the Central Plains thanks
to a pleasant dry surface ridge slipping east across the region. But,
looking at the big picture, the pattern across the Nation is
currently adjusting from being highly amplified to one that is a bit
flatter, especially in the vicinity of Plains States. The high
amplitude ridge that has been to our west for a few days is getting a
beat down from a trough moving east across the Canadian Plains,
though for today and Friday that will just mean more nice weather as
the upper level shortwave ridge moves east.

Friday: Pleasant conditions will prevail again for the day, though a
weak frontal boundary moving east through Nebraska and Iowa may
generate some scattered storms near the Iowa border with some modest
WAA along the isentropic surfaces. Lack of any notable instability
means what shear there is wont have much to work with, so if any
storms bubble up they should be garden verity (non-severe)
thunderstorms. And, even then the potential is looking fleeting as
models have continued to provide only a weak precipitation signal.
Have pushed the focus for POPs into the late afternoon and evening
hours.

The Weekend...is looking a bit drier than previously thought. The
weak front that will get dragged along the northern border of
Missouri Friday night into Saturday had been advertised to stall for
part of the weekend, though now the boundary is expected to wash out
early Saturday leaving little focus area for stormy activity.
However, models still advertise some little scattered precipitation
across far northern Missouri, so while we have scaled back POPs and
limited them to areas north of I-70 Saturday, we have not removed
the potential completely. As for the day Sunday, its looking rather
nice as the surface flow veers to the southwest, forcing the focus
for moisture flux farther north into the Northern Plains where it
will meet a surface high oozing south. The frontal boundary leading
the surface high will slip south and stall near the Missouri-Iowa
border Sunday night, bringing an increasing chance of rain with it,
but the daylight hours of Sunday should be dry, if a bit cloudy.

Next work week...could see a persistent chance of storms to dominate
the region. Rain maker number one...the late weekend frontal
boundary will stall near the Iowa border Sunday night into Monday
providing good focus for more storms across northern Missouri
through the day and night time hours. Severe potential Monday is not
looking great owing to limited combination of instability and shear,
but might be sufficient for large hail and heavy rain. Chance for
stormy activity will persist through Tuesday, but thoughts are main
focus area will move north as trough starts ejecting from the Desert
Southwest shifting surface features a bit north. Widespread chance
for storms then looks to sweep back in across northern Missouri
Wednesday and Thursday as the Desert Southwest trough pivots into
the Northern Plains. At this time, the chances for some kind of
severe weather look best in the Wednesday and Thursday periods of
next week as the upper level dynamics come more into play.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

Winds have begun to veer to the southeast and will become more south-
southeasterly or even south-southwesterly on Friday. A few showers
are possible over far northern MO Friday evening but are not
expected to impact any of the KC or STJ terminals, and even if they
did would have very minimal impacts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






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