Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 300513
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

This persistent period of pleasant weather will continue through the
end of the work week, with a potentially wet, but still pleasant,
weekend in store. The amplified pattern across the country today
continues to leave the Lower Missouri River Valley under the
influence of some lovely spring weather as the meridional flow keeps
dry air and seasonally normal temperatures in place through the rest
of the week. However, this amplified pattern wont last much longer
as a stout shortwave trough moves quickly east through Canada,
flattening the flow as we transit the weekend.

Rest of the work week...will be rather nice, though there is a
chance of storms Friday. Expect temperatures to percolate through
the 70s; with readings Friday not much different than today`s.
Thursday may see temperatures dip a couple of degrees comparatively
as the meridional flow, and low pressure system digging south
through the Great Lakes, advects in a slightly cooler airmass.
Friday is when our next chance of rain will arrive, though the
probability that it will rain is looking a little iffy as model
specifics are a bit variable. But, the idea is that the Canadian
trough will induce enough lift through WAA and isentropic assent to
pull some Gulf moisture north into eastern Kansas and Missouri in
order to generate some storms Friday afternoon and/or evening. Have
focused the precipitation chances into the afternoon and evening
hours of Friday and kept them restricted to near the to the
northwest corner based on latest model solutions which slowed onset
a little, leaving the focus a little farther north for Friday.

For the weekend...it could be wet. Temperatures will continue their
slow climb through the weekend, with 80s possible in many locations
across the region by Sunday as the flat pattern and southerly
surface flow from the western Gulf. Models are in general agreement
at the synoptic scale, but leave a bit to be desired at the smaller
scales. Chance rain POPs for Saturday reflect the continued Gulf
moisture flux that will be occurring across the Central Plains
States. GFS leaves precipitation focused to our north while the
ECMWF focuses it across Missouri. The verity of solutions continues
when you look across the ensemble and other operational models,
which has left confidence on storms Saturday a bit low, but
sufficient to warrant chance POPs across a good chunk of the
forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. Sunday, models are in a
bit better agreement that the focus for storms will be a bit farther
north and east as the flat flow adjusted a little as an open wave
trough moves to make landfall across Baja.

Next work week...the wet pattern may continue. Medium range models
continue to advertise a frontal boundary sweeping south through the
Northern Plains late in the weekend, with the front arriving in our
vicinity early Monday. Currently, thoughts are that the front will
hang across northern Missouri or southern Iowa early next week as
the Baja trough moves northeast through the Four Corners helping
induce a lot more Gulf moisture across the Central Plains. While the
signals for severe weather are not overly strong, the signals for
heavy rain is. If the boundary early in the work week stalls across
the Plains next week with a large trough ejecting out of the Desert
Southwest, we can expect some flooding rains next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

Quiet flying conditions next 24 hours with clear skies and a gradual
eastward turning of the winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Hawblitzel





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