Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 261944
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
244 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

On the large scale this afternoon...longwave ridging prevailing over
the much of the Plains/Midwest as a deep upper trough continues to
slowly eject east from the southern Rockies. Meanwhile along the
sfc...strengthening sfc ridging extends south across the Lwr
Missouri Vly from parent high pressure now located over western
Ontario Province. For much of today...satellite imagery has shown a
gradual decrease in cloud coverage from east to west as drier air
continues to move into the region. Clearing skies combined with
continued cold air advection will set the stage for a rather chilly
night with lows dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Did
consider the need for a frost advisory primarily north of Route
36...however decided to hold off based on latest model guidance which
suggests overnight lows will remain in the upper 30s with a continued
weak pressure gradient that should prevent widespread frost formation.
Otherwise...a fairly quiet start to the week as sfc riding remains
in place. This feature will buffer our region as the aforementioned
southern Rockies low tracks east through the southern Plains into the
lower Mississippi Valley through midweek. Temps through the period
will range slightly below normal early this week before modest
warming occurs by Wednesday as heights begin to build aloft.

More significant warming expected to get underway by late week as
high pressure slowly tracks east through the Southeast and northern
stream energy results in leeside low development across the northern
Plains. This will finally allow modest moisture return north from the
Gulf with models suggesting developing shwrs/storms by Saturday as a
weak warm front lifts north through the area. More concentrated
shwr/storm activity may hold off until Sunday/early Monday when main
upper trough/cold front approach from the west. Regardless...temps
next weekend looking notably warmer with mid to upper 70s likely both
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR conditions rapidly improving early this afternoon as drier air
moves into the area. Expect cigs to scatter out this afternoon with
VFR conditions expected through much of the fcst period. Winds from
the northeast between 10-15 kts will gradually weaken to 4-8 kts this
evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32





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