Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 061112

612 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015

Issued at 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

A large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms was slowly tracking
east across Kansas and Oklahoma. Individual cells within this
cluster are tracking north, with the mean flow, but as the strong
upper wave begins to move northeastward early this morning the
entire area should begin to move into eastern portions of Kansas and
western Missouri. How well this area stays together with eastward
propagation is a little uncertain as models show a distinct
weakening trend before potentially reinvigorating the precipitation
further east. Overall however, it looks like most folks will see some
precipitation from this rain area as it tracks east. The threat of
severe weather looks low due to limited instability.

The focus then shifts west, into the central Plains, this afternoon,
for storms that may move into northeastern Kansas and northwestern
Missouri overnight. Convection looks to fire over central Kansas and
Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. This activity may congeal into a
convective system and track to the east overnight, affecting western
and northwestern portions of the forecast area. How this possible
system evolves will have a large role into how convection evolves
later in the day Thursday. As a result, there is not a lot of
agreement amongst the models and this reduces confidence in how
things will unfold. Larger scale models show the area becoming
moderately unstable Thursday afternoon with shear increasing during
the day. These models develop convection over eastern Kansas and
then track it to the east during the evening/overnight hours. Even
with increasing shear later in the day, we may still only see 25 to
30kts 0-6 km shear and as a result the threat of severe storms looks
low. But there may be some strong storms and a random severe storm
given the instability.

A cold front should move into the area Friday and stall right
through the middle of the forecast area. Moderately unstable
conditions are expected to develop south of the front and with
increasing flow aloft leading to greater shear, a few severe storms
look possible on Friday afternoon and evening. The most likely areas
look to be south of the Missouri River, with the greatest risk of
severe storms over southern and southeastern Kansas.

More thunderstorms are possible Saturday, mainly over the southern
half of the forecast area, south of the stalled frontal boundary.
Once again, moderately strong instability is expected to develop
south of the front. Wind shear again looks to be marginal throughout
the day and may actually decrease during the afternoon and evening
hours. So while the threat of severe weather looks low, a few strong
to severe storms look possible given the amount of instability.

Sunday continues to look like the best potential for severe weather
for the central to eastern Plains. A potent upper level shortwave
trough is expected to move into the Plains during the day leading to
the development of a strong area of low pressure. Again, moderately
strong instability will develop during the afternoon. However, much
stronger shear is expected as a strong jet streak rotates around the
base of the trough. Forecast soundings show a cap in place that
eventually erodes. Forecast hodographs relatively linear which
suggest a good potential for splitting supercells eventually
evolving into a line of storms. Still plenty of time to assess the
potential for severe but models have remained consistent over the
last few runs leading to increased confidence that Sunday has a good
potential for severe storms through the central to eastern Plains.

With all the rounds of possible convection over the next week, there
may be widespread heavy rainfall. But all of this is conditional on
where each round of storms develops and tracks through. So there is
quite a bit of uncertainty with just how much rainfall any specific
area may see. Overall, it`s possible much of the forecast area sees
several inches of rain through late this week and into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

Scattered showers and a few storms will move through the terminals
this morning and early this afternoon. Conditions should generally be
VFR but if a heavier shower may reduce visibility and/or ceilings
briefly. Winds will be strong and gusty from the south throughout the
period. There may be another round of storms move across the area
tonight. The best chances look to be across far northwestern Missouri
and northeastern Kansas, but some there may be some southward
extension as well, so have added a VCTS group to all terminals to
account for this possibility.




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