Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 201738

1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

Issued at 321 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

Cool, breezy, and dry conditions are expected today as the surface
low responsible for the past weekend`s wet weather deepens and lifts
northeast into the Great Lakes region, and its parent upper trough
continues to build slowly to the southeast. Although afternoon RHs
may drop into the 25 to 30 percent range and will be coincident with
northwest winds in excess of 20 to 25 mph, damp ground and greening
native grasses should keep the fire danger below a critical level
this afternoon through early this evening. Cold air advection will
keep highs near or just slightly above 60 degrees this afternoon,
even despite nearly full sunshine during the daylight hours.

A more westerly fetch to Tuesday`s flow and slightly increased 850
hPa temperatures will help highs increase a bit into the mid to
upper 60s across the CWA. A weak frontal boundary will then begin to
set up south of I-70, and will drift very slowly southward Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Upper-level support for precipitation
will be fairly weak throughout this period, but at least a few
widely scattered showers or a very isolated thunderstorm will be
possible near the boundary from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening. Cooler temperatures are expected on the north side of the
front Wednesday, bringing highs back to near the 60 degree mark in
all but our far southern tier of counties for Wednesday afternoon,
and temperatures will remain below normal Thursday with surface
winds remaining out of the east. Any lingering light showers tied to
the slow-moving front will push out of the region on Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Friday as a shortwave
trough lifts out of the four corners region and into the central
Plains, and kicks deepening surface low pressure out into western KS
by Friday afternoon. Model agreement is fairly high for the position
and strength of the system on Friday, so have continued to up PoPs
for Friday afternoon through Friday night across the CWA. Shear will
be quite strong as surface winds back in response to the approaching
surface low and the upper jet brings west southwest winds of 120+
kts over the region aloft, but instability will remain in question
due to the short period of time the atmosphere will have to recover
from the cool, drier flow expected through at least midweek. Changes
to the position and timing of this system are expected as the work
week progresses, but this system warrants some attention moving
forward, especially if the currently good model agreement continues
and the track of the system doesn`t change significantly. Rainfall
associated with Friday`s system should gradually taper off Saturday
morning, leaving behind a few lower-end chances for light rainfall
and slightly cooler temperatures for the remainder of the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

Prevailing VFR conditions throughout the TAF period at all four
terminals. Lower-level clouds under NW flow aloft has taken over
the skies today but as the terminals remain on the edge of the
cloudiness, should primarily remain SCT throughout the rest of the
afternoon. Breezy and gusty NW winds will continue through sunset
this evening, subsiding after dark with the loss of daytime
heating as well as the departure of a low pressure system that had
affected the region over the weekend. For tonight through early
Tuesday, look for some mid-level clouds to move in and winds to
become more westerly.




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