Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KILX 311957
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

High pressure currently centered over northern Missouri will drift
eastward across the area this evening, leading to clear skies and
light winds.  As the high shifts further east, a light southerly
return flow will develop overnight.  Thanks to radiational cooling
of the dry airmass, low temperatures will likely be a few degrees
cooler than numeric guidance suggests.  Have therefore undercut both
the MET/MAV numbers, with lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Surface high pressure slips off to the east of IL into the mid
Atlantic states by 18Z Wed with increasing southerly breezes and fair
amount of sunshine boosting highs to 70-75F with mildest readings in
the western counties. 12Z models are trending slower with arriving
of showers and thunderstorms Wed night and have went dry across area
Wed evening with chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight
Wed night over IL river valley, mainly nw of IL river and slight
chance elsewhere. Strong surface low pressure of 995 mb over Alberta
Canada moving east across southern Canadian prairies and pulls a
cold front toward the IL river by 18Z Thu and through southeast IL
during Thu night. Have increase chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thu and Thursday night. SPC has slight chance of severe storms just
sw of Shelby and Clay counties Thu afternoon and early Thu evening
with marginal risk of 5% se of I-55 for wind and hail. Capes peak
from 1000-1700 j/kg Thu afternoon between 18Z/Thu and 00Z/Fri south
of I-72. Still mild Thu with highs mid 60s nw of IL river and lower
70s in southeast IL.

Surface low pressure ridging ne along frontal boundary near the Ohio
river on Friday to keep high chances of showers Friday with isolated
thunderstorms and heavier rains se of I-70. Total rainfall of 0.70-1
inch from I-55 nw from Thu thru Fri while 1.5-2 inches from I-70 se
where some rivers in southeast IL could approach flood stage again.
Flash flood guidance values in southeast IL are fairly high, running
around 2 inches per hour. Cooler temps Friday behind the cold front
with highs around 50F in central IL and mid to upper 50s in
southeast IL. Slight chance of showers over eastern IL Fri evening
then dry conditions expected this weekend high pressure settles into
KY/TN by sunset Saturday. Highs Sat in the 50s and climb into the
low to mid 60s Sunday and Monday.

Looks unsettled again next Monday-Wednesday with IL getting in a
southwest upper level flow and disturbances tracking near the
region. Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms from Monday
through Wednesday. Milder highs Tue in the upper 60s and lower
70s, then turning cooler again Tue night and Wed as cold front
pushes se through central and southeast IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period as
high pressure remains in control of the weather. Northwesterly
winds gusting to between 12 and 18kt will gradually subside by
sunset, followed by light/variable winds tonight. Once the high
shifts off to the east, a S/SE return flow of around 10kt will
develop Wednesday morning. Even stronger/gustier winds are
anticipated after 18z as the pressure gradient tightens across the
region.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.