Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KILX 270152
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
852 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO FEED COOL AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS PAST HOUR. THE COMBINATION
OF A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COUNTIES WHERE A FEW
OF OUR MORE FAVORED COLD SPOTS MAY SEE THE MERCURY BRIEFLY DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE IN THE 3AM
TO 7AM PERIOD WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-74. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
WARM WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY SHAPING UP ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL
AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
OTHER THAN THE USUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE
DECLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT ZFP. AS A
RESULT...NO EVENING ZFP UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RATHER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 10 TO
15 KTS LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.